Political Analysis of the 2024 MP General Election In India
On June 4, 2024, the results of India's general election were declared, revealing a fragmented political landscape. No single party achieved the majority needed to form a government independently. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the party with the highest number of seats, securing 243 out of 543. Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress (Congress) managed to win 99 seats. Despite the BJP's lead, it fell short of the majority mark, necessitating coalition negotiations to establish a stable government.
Congress's Strategy and Its Impact
Congress and its allies in the INDI alliance executed a strategic campaign to counter the BJP's dominance. Their efforts were marked by several key tactics.
Narratives Used Against the BJP
During the campaign, opposition parties crafted a series of narratives aimed at weakening the BJP’s image and questioning its style of governance. These narratives focused on institutions, rights, social justice, and fears about centralisation of power. By repeatedly highlighting these concerns in speeches and media campaigns, opponents attempted to shift voter attention from development claims to issues of democracy, fairness, and accountability.
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Misuse of agencies (ED, CBI, NIA)
A major allegation was that central investigative agencies such as the ED, CBI, and NIA were being misused to pressure political opponents. Critics argued that frequent raids and investigations against rival leaders appeared politically motivated, especially when they coincided with election periods. This created a perception that law enforcement was being weaponised rather than used impartially.
government independently. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the party with the highest number of seats, securing 243 out of 543. Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress (Congress) managed to win 99 seats. Despite the BJP's lead, it fell short of the majority mark, necessitating coalition negotiations to establish a stable government.
On the 4th of June 2024, the election results signalled a dramatic shift in India’s political landscape, making coalition negotiations both inevitable and crucial. With no single party able to secure a clear majority, political leaders were compelled to reach across party lines, build alliances, and negotiate power-sharing arrangements. These coalition negotiations not only determined who would form the next government, but also highlighted the growing importance of regional parties and consensus-based politics in shaping national policies and governance.
BJP's Path to Power: Coalition Dynamics
The BJP, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, is poised to form the government with the support of its allies within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Collectively, the NDA has garnered enough seats to surpass the majority threshold. This coalition's success hinges on the support of key regional parties, bolstering the BJP’s seat count and solidifying its position to lead the government. Anyway, Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister; he will face problems due to a lack of a majority as well as a strong opposition party. He has to walk with the help of crutches, that is, JDU and TDP.
Seat Share and Majority Challenge
In the 543-seat Lok Sabha, a party or alliance must secure at least 272 seats to form a stable government. However, in the 2024 general election, the leading coalition won only 243 seats, leaving it significantly short of the majority mark. This shortfall underscored the fragmented nature of voter preferences and the challenges of translating vote share into decisive parliamentary strength. Falling short of the majority necessitated extensive negotiations and strategic alliance-building to bridge the gap and ensure effective governance.
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Role of NDA and Coalition Support
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), traditionally the largest coalition in Indian politics, emerged as a pivotal player in the post-election landscape. Although the NDA had a substantial block of seats, it still needed additional support to cross the majority threshold. By engaging with regional partners and smaller parties, the NDA worked to consolidate its position and secure the numbers required to stake a claim to form the government. The alliance’s ability to bring diverse political entities together became a defining factor in shaping the coalition arithmetic.
Key Supporting Parties
JDU
The Janata Dal (United) played a key role in fortifying the coalition’s numbers. With its base in Bihar and established political leadership, the JDU’s support provided not just additional seats but also strategic regional strength that was vital for the NDA’s coalition calculations.
TDP
The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), a significant force in Andhra Pradesh, also emerged as an important support partner. Its contribution to the seat tally helped narrow the gap toward the majority mark, underscoring the importance of regional players in national coalition politics.
Governance with Coalition Constraints
Running a government with coalition support often means governing with crutches, as policy decisions and legislative agendas must balance the interests of multiple partners, sometimes leading to compromises that reflect political negotiations more than unilateral priorities.
Congress's Coalition Efforts: The INDI Alliance
On the other side of the political spectrum, Congress is making concerted efforts to challenge the BJP's claim to power. Congress is working to consolidate its position by uniting with its allies under the Indian National Democratic Alliance (INDI). Additionally, Congress is seeking the support of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal United (JDU). However, the path to forming a government is fraught with challenges, including the issue of determining a prime ministerial candidate from among its ranks. Anyway, the INDI alliances stopped Modi from bringing the full majority but failed to be the prime minister.
Congress’s Alliance Strategy
In the wake of the 2024 election results, Congress sharpened its alliance strategy through the INDI bloc, aiming to consolidate opposition strength against the ruling coalition. By reaching out to regional parties and reinforcing existing partnerships, Congress sought to project itself as the anchor of a broader collaborative front. The emphasis was on building trust, aligning policy priorities, and presenting a united alternative capable of challenging the dominant coalition both inside and outside Parliament.
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Coalition Challenges and Leadership Issues
Despite assembling a diverse alliance, the INDI bloc faced significant hurdles when it came to leadership decisions—particularly in choosing a unanimous candidate for Prime Minister. Differing political ambitions, regional interests, and ideological nuances complicated the process of settling on a single face to lead the alliance. These internal challenges highlighted the broader difficulty of maintaining unity in a coalition environment where multiple leaders possess both influence and aspirations.
Factors Contributing to the BJP's Missed Majority
Despite the BJP's strong showing, it failed to achieve its ambitious goal of crossing the 400-seat mark. Several factors contributed to this outcome:
Campaign and Perception Issues
While the ruling alliance conducted an aggressive nationwide campaign, several perception issues gradually emerged among voters. Public expectations were high, and many citizens closely evaluated whether campaign promises aligned with lived realities. As the election progressed, critics argued that the campaign narrative sometimes appeared disconnected from key economic and social concerns, creating scepticism among undecided voters. These perception gaps became crucial in shaping final voting behaviour.
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Overconfidence
One recurring criticism was the perception of overconfidence. Some leaders projected an image of guaranteed victory, which at times appeared dismissive of growing public grievances. This sense of inevitability may have alienated sections of the electorate who expected humility, dialogue, and acknowledgement of ground-level challenges.
Exaggeration of achievements
Another factor that influenced voter perception was the frequent emphasis on government achievements, which critics argued were occasionally overstated. While progress was undeniable in several areas, constant repetition of success stories without adequately addressing unresolved issues—such as unemployment or inflation—created doubts about the authenticity of the narrative.
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Focus on major religions
The campaign also drew attention for its repeated references to major religious identities. Although intended to mobilise support, this approach sometimes deepened polarisation and diverted discussions away from development-oriented topics. Many voters began questioning whether religion was overshadowing essential governance priorities.
Attacks on political dynasties
A significant portion of campaign speeches focused on attacking political dynasties within opposition parties. While this rhetoric resonated with some voters, others viewed it as repetitive and insufficiently issue-based. Over time, constant criticism of rival families seemed less persuasive than concrete plans addressing everyday problems.
Governance and Policy-Related Factors
Corruption perceptions
Growing perceptions of corruption also played a role in shaping voter attitudes. Allegations surrounding favouritism, opaque deals, and undue influence by powerful corporate groups created an impression that governance was drifting away from transparency. Even where direct proof was lacking, repeated stories in the media and opposition campaigns reinforced the belief that accountability mechanisms were weakening.
Hate speech backlash
The frequent use of provocative and divisive rhetoric during the campaign triggered a noticeable backlash. Statements perceived as hate speech not only drew criticism from civil society and opposition parties' favouritism but also unsettled moderate voters who preferred inclusive politics. This backlash suggested that harsh language might mobilise some supporters, yet simultaneously alienate a broader segment of the electorate.
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Loss of trust in schemes
Many flagship welfare schemes initially earned appreciation, but over time, some beneficiaries began questioning their reach and long-term benefits. Delays in implementation, bureaucratic hurdles, and inconsistencies across regions weakened public confidence. As trust declined, promises of new schemes were greeted with scepticism, as voters increasingly demanded results rather than announcements.
Ignoring unemployment and farmers’ demands
Two issues stood out prominently—unemployment and farmers’ concerns. Youth struggling to secure stable jobs felt that their frustrations were not adequately acknowledged. At the same time, farmers voiced demands regarding fair prices, debt relief, and support for crop losses. The perception that these issues were sidelined during the campaign significantly influenced rural and youth voting behaviour.
Local corruption issues
Beyond national politics, local-level corruption became a decisive factor in many constituencies. Complaints about misused development funds, favouritism in public services, and unfulfilled local projects eroded faith in representatives. These grassroots grievances reminded voters that governance is judged not only in grand speeches, but also in everyday administrative honesty and efficiency.
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Controversial Laws and Social Impact
CAA
The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) once again became a contentious talking point during the election. Supporters viewed it as a humanitarian measure offering protection to persecuted minorities from neighbouring countries. However, critics argued that it raised concerns about constitutional equality and discrimination. The renewed debate revived earlier protests and anxieties among certain communities, adding to voter apprehension about how the law might affect long-term citizenship policies.
NRC
Alongside the CAA discussion, the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) intensified public unease. Many people worried about the documentation requirements and the possibility of being labelled “illegal residents” due to paperwork gaps. In several states, citizens voiced fears that ordinary individuals—especially the poor, migrants, and the elderly—could be trapped in bureaucratic processes. This uncertainty contributed to a sense of insecurity that influenced political attitudes.
UCC
The idea of implementing a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) also generated significant debate. While some voters welcomed it as a step toward legal uniformity and gender justice, others believed it could undermine cultural and religious diversity. The lack of clarity on how such a code would be framed and enforced left many questions unanswered. As a result, the UCC discussion became another polarising issue that shaped perceptions of the government’s broader social agenda.
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Democracy under threat
Opposition leaders also stressed that democratic institutions were weakening. They claimed that voices critical of the government were being sidelined, and that Parliament debates were becoming increasingly restricted. This message resonated particularly with voters concerned about constitutional values, freedom of expression, and institutional independence.
Fear regarding reservation changes
Another important narrative centred on fears that reservation policies for marginalised communities might be altered or diluted. Despite official clarifications, opponents used this issue effectively to mobilise voters by suggesting that long-standing social protections could be at risk. This increased anxiety among several communities that depend on the reservation for educational and employment opportunities.
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Promises and Voter Mobilisation
To counter the ruling coalition, the opposition alliance focused on promises that directly addressed everyday concerns. Their strategy emphasised economic relief, social inclusion, and a vision of governance that appeared more consultative and people-centred. These campaign promises helped energise large segments of the electorate, particularly youth, workers, and minority groups.
Jobs and welfare schemes
One of the strongest messages was the promise of expanding job opportunities and strengthening welfare programs. Opposition leaders highlighted unemployment and rising living costs, assuring voters that a change in leadership would bring more employment initiatives, better social security, and targeted financial support.
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Support for minorities
The opposition also emphasised the protection and inclusion of minority communities. They pledged equal rights, security, and representation, presenting themselves as defenders of secular values. This stance was designed to reassure communities that felt anxious or marginalised in the existing political climate.
Opposition to CAA/NRC
Clear opposition to the CAA and proposed NRC became a rallying theme across many regions. Leaders argued that these measures could create divisions and bureaucratic hardships for ordinary citizens. By promising to review or roll back such policies, they aimed to attract voters worried about citizenship rights and documentation issues.
Message of peace and unity
Finally, the broader campaign message revolved around peace, unity, and restoring harmony across society. Opposition speeches frequently emphasised reducing polarisation, encouraging dialogue, and fostering a sense of national togetherness. This narrative appealed to voters who wanted stability along with inclusive progress.
The Road Ahead: NDA’s Government Formation and INDI’s Watchful Wait
Although the BJP-led NDA coalition is set to form the government, the political atmosphere remains volatile. Congress and its INDI allies, despite failing to secure enough seats to form the government, are in a wait-and-watch mode. They anticipate potential instability within the NDA government, hoping for opportunities to challenge its longevity.
Possible Instability Within the Coalition
Although the coalition succeeded in forming the government, questions about stability continue to linger. With several regional parties holding crucial numbers, the survival of the government depends on constant negotiation, compromise, and coordination. Differences in ideology, leadership ambitions, and state-specific demands can easily create friction among partners. Even minor disagreements over portfolios, policies, or resource allocation have the potential to trigger political tensions. As a result, analysts believe that the coalition may face periodic internal challenges, and its longevity will depend largely on how effectively it manages dissent and maintains unity.
Opposition Strategy Going Forward
Looking ahead, the opposition is expected to refine its strategy both inside Parliament and among the public. Rather than relying solely on criticism, it is likely to focus on building strong organisational networks, amplifying local issues, and presenting credible policy alternatives. The opposition may also attempt to hold the government accountable through debates, protests, and coordinated campaigns on unemployment, inflation, farmers’ problems, and social justice. At the same time, leaders will work to keep their own alliance united and disciplined, recognising that public trust grows when the opposition appears constructive, responsible, and ready to govern.
A Fragmented Mandate and Uncertain Future
The 2024 general election has underscored India's deeply divided political landscape. The BJP, despite winning the most seats, could not secure a decisive mandate, reflecting both voter support and discontent. The Congress, while not victorious, has managed to create significant inroads through strategic alliances and targeted campaigns.
This election has highlighted critical issues facing India, from economic concerns to social harmony. As the NDA forms the government, it must address these challenges and navigate coalition politics to maintain stability. Meanwhile, the Congress-led INDI alliance will continue to exert pressure, capitalising on any missteps by the ruling coalition.
In the coming months, the effectiveness of the NDA’s governance and the resilience of the Congress's opposition will shape India's political trajectory. This period of political manoeuvring and strategic alliances will determine the country’s direction, with both sides vying to fulfil their promises and win the trust of the Indian populace.
Mixed Verdict from Voters
The 2024 election delivered what many analysts describe as a mixed verdict. Voters did not fully reject the ruling alliance, but neither did they give it the overwhelming mandate it had enjoyed earlier. Instead, the results reflected both appreciation for certain policies and dissatisfaction with unresolved issues. This balanced outcome signalled that citizens wanted continuity with stronger accountability, more sensitivity to economic pressures, and a greater focus on inclusive governance.
Governance Priorities for NDA
With a slimmer mandate and coalition dependence, the NDA now faces the challenge of governing carefully and collaboratively. The government is expected to shift its priorities toward practical problem-solving, strengthening welfare delivery, and rebuilding trust among sections of society that felt overlooked. Effective communication, measured decision-making, and a consultative approach will be essential in navigating the new political environment.
Economy
Reviving the economy remains a central priority. The government must address inflation, job creation, investment growth, and rising living costs. Policies that encourage small businesses, support startups, and expand manufacturing will be crucial, along with targeted programs to help youth find sustainable employment.
Social harmony
Another key area is social harmony. With divisions highlighted during the campaign, the NDA will need to reassure citizens that governance aims to unite rather than polarise. Promoting dialogue, respecting diversity, and ensuring equal treatment under the law can help restore a sense of trust and national cohesion.
Coalition management
Coalition management is likely to become an everyday task. The leadership must keep regional partners engaged through negotiation, power-sharing, and respect for their state-level priorities. Stable governance will depend on patience, compromise, and maintaining open communication channels among all allies.
Role of the Opposition in Democracy
In this new political landscape, the opposition’s role becomes especially significant. A strong, responsible opposition helps safeguard democracy by questioning government decisions, highlighting public concerns, and ensuring transparency. When it offers constructive criticism and viable policy alternatives, it enhances parliamentary debate and maintains governance accountability. Ultimately, an active opposition not only challenges the ruling coalition but also represents the voices of millions who expect their concerns to be heard.
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